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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 88

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:38) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.03 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model