4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.11 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model