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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to CIN 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model