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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.22 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP