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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model