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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 14

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model