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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Malone. Coverage by 24-Sensabaugh.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -0.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model