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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 18 for 10 yards (47-C.Worley).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model