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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(6:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model