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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 93

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to CLE 46, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 93, worth -5.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 51, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model