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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right guard to 50 for 2 yards (52-R.Armstrong; 22-J.Peppers).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model