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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:50) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to BAL 48 for 37 yards (87-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model