4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 26

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(7:08) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model