Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 14 – Baltimore Ravens 23

(5:30) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model