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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.31 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model