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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 23 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 5, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP