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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 26 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to CLE 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 26 for 1 yard (41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model