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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 24 – Baltimore Ravens 26

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 29-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley [99-M.Judon] at BAL 39. 57-C.Mosley to BAL 39 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP