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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP