Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 14 – New York Giants 7

(13:24) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-C.Coleman to DAL 45 for 19 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 81, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model