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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 38

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(11:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler to DAL 28 for 10 yards (25-X.Woods).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.18 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model