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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 14 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to NYG 46 for 11 yards (36-S.Chandler).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model