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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 21 – New York Giants 18

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYG 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-C.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model