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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-C.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model