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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 20

New York Giants 32 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 2-A.Rosas 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.91 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model