4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 28 – New York Giants 35

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Beasley. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.93 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP