Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 52

New York Giants 35 – Dallas Cowboys 36

(:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.72 EP
67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -1.33 EP

KICK -0.30 EP

26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.28 EP

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP