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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 8

Detroit Lions 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater pass short left to 87-L.Toilolo for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model