Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(12:07) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to DET 44, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.94 EP
54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model