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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DET 32, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-82-J.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.81 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 82, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP