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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 25

Detroit Lions 21 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.89 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model