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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(9:40) (Shotgun) 9-D.Kizer pass incomplete deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (23-D.Slay).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.19 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model