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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 35

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 6-S.Martin punts 29 yards to GB 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-17-A.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model