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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to DET 44, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 88, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 46, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP