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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 46

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 3-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model