Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 20 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Denver Broncos 3

(12:30) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 44 for 3 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model