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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model