Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to LAC 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 21 for no gain (27-B.Langley). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model