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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 16 at the 38
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(2:09) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.20 EP
-
24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.61 EP
- 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.75 EP
KICK
+0.22 EP
Model's Pick
- 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT
+0.01 EP
What Happened
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
