Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 79

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

(9:13) 8-M.Darr punts 35 yards to MIA 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 48 for 8 yards (29-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.04 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model