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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 8-M.Darr punts 32 yards to MIA 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 49 for 1 yard (29-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.84 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP