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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 17-J.Allen up the middle to MIA 5 for 3 yards (56-D.Godchaux).

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model