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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model