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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 12 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 17 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-34-S.Perry.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.83 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model