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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 36

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:32) 28-J.White up the middle to NYJ 36 for no gain (92-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model