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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 82

New England Patriots 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at NYJ 39 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.25 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model