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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 50

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model