Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 69

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 28

(12:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 12 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.28 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 69, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model