Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0

(10:26) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NE 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 8 yards (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model