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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 9 at the 22
New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(:58) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
The Three Options
GO
+0.63 EP
-
29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
- 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.11 EP
KICK
+1.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 11% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
